California wasn’t just wetter than normal it had its third-wettest year on record! That’s not how things, played out, though. And the black dotted line is the 1981-2010 average of water year accumulated precipitation. The blue line refers to the previous water year, 2016-2017. Orange line refers to the current, 2017-2018, water year. Accumulated precipitation for each water year (October-September) from 1950 to present in four cities in California. Sacramento San Francisco Los Angeles San DiegoĬlick tabs to toggle between cities. It was a reasonable outlook given that La Niña suggests drier conditions in southern California. The winter outlook for California, meanwhile, did not forecast a slam dunk for any outcome: it showed an increased chance of drier conditions in southern California and an equal chance of above, below or normal precipitation in northern California. You can read exactly what we were thinking about ENSO right before the 2016-2017 winter here (1). The rainfall during last winter in California probably falls in that “not-so-much” category. Even so, we can use the state of ENSO as a “hint” of what may be in store. NASA MODIS/TERRA satellite image taken from NASA Worldview.įirst off, if there is one topic that we here at the ENSO Blog have covered repeatedly, it’s that when it comes to specific climate impacts, especially for the United States, an El Niño or La Niña is a guarantee of absolutely nothing. Heavy rains and higher elevation snow battered California during a multi-day atmospheric river event. Satellite image taken on January 8, 2017.
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